Tagged: Advanced Loss of Profits, Cargo, claims, Delay in Start Up, freight forwarders, FSL, Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Rita, insurers, losses, premiums, recession, reinsurance, risk, soft market, specialist, underwriting

First published in the January / February 2009 edition of Heavy Lift Magazine

The global economic gloom is casting its shadow over insurance like everything else, with sharp rises in premiums likely across the board in the near future. We asked logistics-industry insurance expert Philip Bilney* why reducing cover is not a good idea.

Can project forwarders avoid paying more for insurance?
The temptation is always there to skimp on insurance cover. Reducing the level of cover or seeking less comprehensive policies may save money short-term but the risk is that it would be a “false economy”. It does look as though the insurance market in general will harden over the next several months – in other words premiums will rise – for a number of reasons. This applies to most sectors including Marine Cargo insurance, E&O, projects and project-related cover such as Delayed Start-Up (DSU) or Advanced Loss of Profits (ALOP) insurance. But the answer at a time like this is to look to an organisation such as the WCA Family that has the buying power to reduce the impact of any market price hikes.

So insurers are seeking to restore their profits?
Essentially, yes, because insurance companies have to make a profit like anyone else. Here are some of the reasons why – reasons you may care to pass on to project owners tempted to cut back at this difficult time.

First, supply and demand: insurance capital is derived primarily from equity markets and when that capital dries up, the amount of risk any one insurer can accept is reduced. Less equity market capital means a reduced supply of insurance capital, which in turn leads to a higher price to buy that small part of it which you need to cover your risk. In this regard it behaves in much the same way as any other commodity, but in the opposite direction.

Similarly, there is not an abundance of capital sloshing around looking to take advantage of a perceived increase in rates. After Hurricanes Rita and Katrina, which hit the Energy and Offshore market so hard, there was a rush of new capital into the industry to take advantage of the anticipated hardening, with the result that it never actually happened. That sort of capital ingress often tends to manifest itself in the form of new start-up reinsurance companies which are effectively the wholesalers of insurance capital.

But surely premiums are already expensive?
Actually, premiums will be rising from a relatively low level. The market has been at historically soft levels for the last year or so and thus is due an upturn anyway (in my experience upturns only really happen when the market is already genuinely soft). We had the same situation immediately before 9/11, which prompted the last serious hardening of the market.

Also, major losses were unusually high in 2008. For example, claims from
Hurricane Ike alone are expected to reach USD16 billion.

Insurance companies are famously known as “investors with a bad habit” (underwriting), so many have been hit hard by a collapse in their asset values. The thing is, very few are admitting to it yet.

What other factors contribute?
Generally speaking, recessions on a scale now being encountered worldwide produce more crime, including fraudulent claims and associated losses, and that of course drives up premiums.

Insurance buyers will often ask why the cost of their particular insurance has gone up in a hard market although the risk remains the same. The answer is that all classes of insurance are connected because the source of capital is much the same, and reinsurance costs (the mechanism by which insurance companies offset their risks) tend to rise across the whole industry. So the tide of the whole market rises and falls as one, although of course individual anomalies do occur here and there.

When will the premium increases start to hit home?
Curiously enough given the depressing economic news, there is some debate over whether this hardening is actually happening as yet. The ‘rescue’ of AIG has actually had the effect of reducing some prices because AIG has to compete harder to retain market share, and in other areas some insurers are maintaining prices in order to avoid losing good business.

But in general, insurance companies are refusing to reduce premiums now and there are some areas (Marine Hull for example) where increases of 5-10 percent are already being applied. The jury is still out, but the general view in the industry is that prices will move sharply upward from early 2009.

Trade Credit premiums, on the other hand, have already doubled. If you can buy cover at all. Default & bankruptcy claims are escalating dramatically and most insurers in that sector (there are only a handful) are hunkering down and declining to accept much new business while they wait for the storm to pass. But business is still being done.

So what can project forwarders do to economise?
Despite some rising prices, now would be the worst possible time to run uninsured. Claim frequencies will rise, not only for the reasons I mentioned above, but also because more goods will be rejected by customers than would normally be the case, and if they are genuinely damaged, then cargo insurance will cover this.

FSL (freight services liability cover) also becomes more vital as people get more litigious and the nmber of disputes rises. Forwarding businesses are highly exposed at the best of times, but the risks can only worsen as the world’s economies slide into recession and trading becomes more difficult.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that insurance companies tend to give a much better deal to long-standing clients than they do to companies who are perceived to dip in and out of the market. So while there is every reason to ‘shop around’, there is also value in building and maintaining a good relationship with an insurer over time – try to work only with reputable, secure insurers and where possible leverage off the influence of those organisations who have genuine buying power.

*Philip Bilney is group executive director of FP Marine Risks, a specialist provider of insurance products and services across the entire spectrum of Marine and related sectors. Based in Hong Kong, in 2006 the company was the first Asian-based insurance broker to become a fully accredited Lloyd’s of London broker following three years of mandatory provisional accreditation. FP Marine Risks, the sole broker for WCA Family of Logistic Networks, developed Project Cargo Insurance, one of a suite of products available exclusively to members of WCA Family that includes Marine (cargo) insurance and Freight Services (E&O and legal liability) cover.

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