Deidre Littlefield, IUMI president, said “There is no doubt that the all-time historic profits made by owners during the halcyon period marked by the last five years were helped in no small measure by driving ships and crews as hard as possible.

“Inevitably, such a strategy impacts heavily on claims, and we expect that many ship repairs and onboard unit replacements, which have been deferred or ignored during the sky-high profit years, will start to surface, along with the results of skimped maintenance, leading to a further escalation of claims. And adding to the financial pressure on insurers, we will see spiralling requests for return of premiums applying to ships going into ‘cold’ or long-term lay-up.”

The pressures on insurers may be offset by certain benefits that lower trade brings, namely fewer older vessels on the water and fewer problems finding suitable seafarers, although as Ms Littlefield adds, “recruitment going forward remains a huge problem when seen against the threats of piracy and the criminalisation of mariners.”

At FP Marine Risks we have not yet seen a sustained or widespread hardening of the marine market, despite many insurers’ predictions at the end of last year.

But is this a lot of noise being made by those who would talk-up the market, or does it reflect a genuine trend?

There is a common misconception that insurance rates are predicated solely on the likelihood of loss. In fact, insurance rates directly reflect the volume of investment capital coming into the industry and the competition that generates for the premium dollar.

Claims rarely have a direct impact on rates unless they are of such a magnitude they drive insurers out of the market or any given sector of the market.

Executive Director Philip Bilney adds, “In reality, rates only rise when people like us - brokers looking for the best deals for our clients - run out of options. When the competition for risk dries up, then the market hardens. Insurance capacity is a commodity and like any other commodity if demand outstrips supply, the price goes up. It’s as simple as that.”

So were Katrina and Rita big enough to move the market? Frankly, we don’t know yet.

At first, we doubted they were, but the losses now stacking up in the Energy Market are starting to suggest otherwise.

The Hull market is definitely hardening, with increased rates being charged in London.

The trend is a little more difficult to discern on the Cargo side. There is a great deal of talk about the Professional Re’s imposing tough terms on the 1 January treaty renewals, although Reinsurers are yet to put pen to paper.

It looks increasingly likely the soft pricing of the last 12 months may indeed have come to an end.